Tim Burns' Awkard Position

Tim Burns' Awkward Position

March 12, 2010 1:55 PM
By Reid Wilson

He's been the GOP nominee for all of a day, but already businessman Tim Burns (R) faces a delicate balancing act in the race to replace the late Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) -- one that could fatally compromise the GOP's chances of taking back a seat they might otherwise win.

Burns will face ex-Murtha aide Mark Critz (D) in the May 18 special election to fill the remainder of Murtha's term. But that same day, Burns will face a well-funded challenger from the right in the regularly-scheduled GOP primary.

That could force Burns into a dangerous dual game, at once appealing to moderate voters with talk of jobs and the economy while struggling not to turn them off if he's forced to appeal to a GOP base interested more in social issues. And for his part, '08 nominee William Russell (R) has little interest, or intention, of making Burns' path any easier.

Burns' choice, as some see it, could be between winning a special election while losing a primary, and appealing to the GOP base in order to win the primary while losing the special, a result that would leave him terminally weakened in advance of the Nov. elections.*

Hoping to avoid a backlash similar to that which divided the GOP in NY-23 last year, the PA GOP backed off initial plans to select a nominee through the state party, a plan Russell allies lambasted as tainted. Instead, delegates voted for Burns by a 2-1 margin in a conference procress -- a process Russell also slammed as illegitimate.

"The outcome was always a foregone conclusion. We knew they were going to ram this through and they did," one Russell advisor said. At the conclusion of the process, Russell said he would run in a primary.

The NRCC will back Burns, but the committee has not committed to spending money on his behalf for the special election. The NRCC has little money to spend, and party strategists see the big Dem voter registration edge as a disadvantage not easily overcome.
But Burns spokesperson Tad Rupp said GOPers have a strong chance to reclaim the district, and that his candidate will be able to avoid the dance between conservative GOPers and centrist independents.

"When you start looking at the values of voters and what they are taking into account, conservative Democrats are as upset with Washington as Republicans in the district," Rupp said. "If you look at the district, it's exactly the kind that [GOPers] can turn red."

GOP strategists expressed surprise at how difficult it was to drive up negatives against unknown candidates, and indeed, Reps. Scott Murphy (D-NY) and Bill Owens (D-NY) won their respective races against GOPers who had run before. Now, the GOP has their own businessman with the ability to raise money -- and to write himself a big check.

Now that Burns is the nominee, Rupp said, the campaign will begin conversations with the NRCC about how much the party can help out. Otherwise, Burns is willing to spend significantly on his own behalf, but "he's not going to be a self-funder," Rupp said.

In one important respect, the GOP has departed from its earlier special election gaffes. In both NY-20 and NY-23, the party anointed elected officials to run for open seats, while Dems picked businessmen with little name ID and good fundraising skills.
Of 3 competitive special elections likely to occur before the midterms, GOPers have expressed the least confidence in their ability to win back Murtha's seat. The combination of an already-uneven voter registration tally, 2 competitive Dem primaries expected to drive turnout and Critz's relations with key players in the district will make Burns' race a tough slog.

What may be tougher is the balancing act between appeals to independent voters and appeals to conservatives who may not let Burns on the ballot in Nov.

* -- A footnote: Winning a special election the same day one loses a primary isn't unheard of. Ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-HI) won a special election to replace Cecil Heftel (D) in '86, the same day he lost the general election nomination to Mufi Hannemann (D). Hannemann went on to lose the general election to Rep. Pat Saiki (R) that Nov.